Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further?

Understanding the response of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) system to global climate change is an interesting scientific problem that has enormous implications from the societal viewpoint. While the CMIP3 projections of future changes in monsoon precipitation used in the IPCC AR4 show major uncertainties, there is a growing recognition that the rapid increase of moisture in a warming climate can potentially enhance the stability of the large-scale tropical circulations. In this work, the authors have examined the stability of the SAM circulation based on diagnostic analysis of climate datasets over the past half century; and addressed the issue of likely future changes in the SAM in response to global warming using simulations from an ultra-high resolution (20 km) global climate model. Additional sensitivity experiments using a simplified atmospheric model have been presented to supplement the overall findings. The results here suggest that the intensity of the boreal summer monsoon overturning circulation and the associated southwesterly monsoon flow have significantly weakened during the past 50-years. The weakening trend of the monsoon circulation is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy monsoon rainfall days and upward vertical velocities particularly over the narrow mountain ranges of the Western Ghats. Based on simulations from the 20-km ultra high-resolution model, it is argued that a stabilization (weakening) of the summer monsoon Hadley-type circulation in response to global warming can potentially lead to a weakened large-scale monsoon flow thereby resulting in weaker vertical velocities and reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghat mountains by the end of the twenty-first century. Supplementary experiments using a simplified atmospheric model indicate a high sensitivity of the large-scale monsoon circulation to atmospheric stability in comparison with the effects of condensational heating.     

Magnetic fields in planetary nebulae and post-AGB nebulae

Magnetic fields are an important but largely unknown ingredient of planetary nebulae. They have been detected in oxygen-rich asymptotic giant branch (AGB) and post-AGB stars, and may play a role in the shaping of their nebulae. Here we present SCUBA submillimetre polarimetric observations of four bipolar planetary nebulae and post-AGB stars, including two oxygen-rich and two carbon-rich nebulae, to determine the geometry of the magnetic field by dust alignment. Three of the four sources (NGC 7027, 6537 and 6302) present a well-defined toroidal magnetic field oriented along their equatorial torus or disc. NGC 6302 may also show field lines along the bipolar outflow. CRL 2688 shows a complex field structure, where part of the field aligns with the torus, whilst an other part approximately aligns with the polar outflow. It also presents marked asymmetries in its magnetic structure. NGC 7027 shows evidence for a disorganized field in the south-west corner, where the SCUBA shows an indication for an outflow. The findings show a clear correlation between field orientation and nebular structure.     

Performance evaluation and bias correction of gridded precipitation products over Arun River Basin in Nepal for hydrological applications

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - An accurate estimation of precipitation amount is crucial for various studies and planning related to water resource management, effective flood prediction and...